Brewers likely to forfeit Opening Day game

From the JS Blog:

Jeff SuppanThis is how Macha has them lined up  now, and he emphasized this does not mean they will line up this way for the season:

RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Yovani Gallardo
LHP Manny Parra
RHP Braden Looper
RHP Dave Bush

But, you know what? It wouldn't surprise me if they lined up this way at the start of the season

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me either which is disappointing (to say the least). I know that in the grand scheme of things the order of the starting 5 doesn't really matter and things even out over a 162 game season. I understand that, but why would you make your WORST pitcher line up with the opposing teams BEST pitcher for the first few series of the season?

Let's assume a few other teams #1 starter and look at Suppan's first three match ups.

4/7 @ Giants: Reigning Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum
4/12 CHC: Carlos Zambrano
4/18 @NYM: Johan Santana

Now let's look at how they all match up for 2009 using CHONE projections.

Team W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR SO
Suppan 7 11 5.31 28 28 161 195 103 95 20 86
Lincecum 10 7 3.21 25 25 154 130 59 55 11 175
Zambrano 11 9 4.14 30 30 185 181 92 85 19 144
Santana 15 8 3.33 31 31 208 185 83 77 22 200

So, like, don't do that. It's a really bad idea.

[stats: Fangraphs]
[image: St Louis Review]

Vince Morales is the guy who runs this site. He likes the Milwaukee Brewers, pro wrestling and beer. If he offended you he is very, very sorry.

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4 comments on “Brewers likely to forfeit Opening Day game

  1. Danny Noonan on said:

    It’s only a bad idea if you’re trying to win every single game, which isn’t going to happen. Or if you’re looking at it in terms of Just Suppan’s games. But a Gallardo win or a Bush win is worth just as much as a Suppan win. Suppan is likely to lose to Lincecum and Zambrano, but he’s also likely to lose to Jonathon Sanchez too. And Lincecum and Z would have a good shot at beating Gallardo too. So why not let Gallardo and Bush have the good match-ups and hope Braun hits 2 grand slams when Suppan pitches?

  2. Miller Park Drunk on said:

    I think you just need to give your team the very best chance to win every time you play. Putting your worst pitcher on the mound against the opposing team’s best pitcher puts the team at a distinct disadvantage in those games. While putting a Parra or a Gallardo against Santana or Lincecum, gives the team a greater shot at winning. The other team’s pitching still has the advantage, but its not a full one to two run gap as it would be with Suppan out there.

    I like the idea of Parra and Gallardo getting better matchups. I just hate the idea of Suppan getting the worst matchups because on those days the team is going to be big underdogs. I wouldn’t hate this as much if it was Looper or Bush penciled in at #1.

  3. Pingback: 10 Things I Won’t Miss About The Brewers | Miller Park Drunk

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