It’s going to be a long season

I was just reading a blog about fantasy baseball (Are you shocked that I play fantasy baseball? You shouldn't be, I do four posts a day about the Brewers in the middle of February. Do I seem like I have a life?) and I realized that this season I am going to break one of the biggest fantasy baseball rules.

Beware the homer pick: Everyone knows the danger for picking a player from your favorite team: you're already invested so heavily, why make it worse? There is no need to die two deaths when the Jays lose, why put yourself through that? Additionally, you'll cheer for the Jays forever while dudes on your fantasy teams come and go. Remember that when you're hoping the Jays "only beat Joba 1-0, with a home run from Vernon Wells."

Now, I'm in a keeper league and we haven't re-drafted yet but I have set my keepers already. I think I've done a pretty fine job of keeping all my undervalued guys and setting myself to bid on some big free agents. Of the players I've kept two stick out:

SP Yovanni Gallardo
OF Corey Hart

Obviously, the Yovanni pick is scary as hell. He missed just about all of last season and the chances of him being injured again are off the board in Vegas. I can live with it though because if he stays healthy this is HIS team and I think this team is pretty damn good. Keeping Corey Hart, however, is proof that I am certifiably insane. I wrote yesterday about how much he frustrates me as a Brewer and it's multiplied quite a bit when he's also on my fantasy team. (Thank god I was out of the running last September.) I am really nervous about him, but at the same time need his 25/25 potential at the price I have him for.

Now, having two guys from your team is not that big of a deal. Everyone does that. What truly worries me is what I am going to do in the upcoming draft. I have money to spend. I need a middle infielder. Middle infielders available include Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy. I also need an elite corner power guy. Prince Fielder is available. I need a somewhat cheap outfielder. Mike Cameron is there. There are other players available, but in each of these instances Brewers are my Plan B (Plan A in JJ's case) and that scares the crap out of me.

24 Hours til First Spring Training Game

Anyone who hasn't signed up with MLB.tv yet has no need to rush because the game will not be available. The game will be on WTMJ-AM where we'll get our first taste of Bob Uecker and his new Cubs lovin' buddy Cory Provus. I can't wait to hear Suppan give up homeruns to Matt Holliday and Jack Cust, followed by Provus telling us that Carlos Zambrano would NEVER do something like that (kidding!).

Did you know that all of the spring training games will be broadcast in some shape or form? Between WTMJ, Brewers.com and FSN-Wisconsin all the games are covered. That's pretty sweet, but also too bad because this spring training has to share the spotlight with the World Baseball Classic (which I still can't figure out if I care about or not.) Regardless, I'm looking forward to hearing Bob Uecker's voice tomorrow even if the game and it's outcome mean nothing.

You don’t walk out of Kentucky

Today's JS piece centers on Corey Hart, "Hart attacks stamina", honestly I'm surprised they didn't go with something like "Corey has the Hart to tackle stamina". In it Corey blames his September woes on stamina. Which makes sense, he's young and has never played that many games before. Honestly, I think there is more to it.

So with the Brewers down a run in the seventh inning and the bases loaded, up stepped Corey Hart, whose struggles in September already had been documented. But he had yet to produce anything as bad as what followed.

Michael Wuertz threw Hart three consecutive sliders, all below the knees, each one farther away from Hart than the first. The final one ended up in the left batter's box.

Hart flailed at all three, never coming close to touching one.

Yeah, that was awful. Sure, without that moment we wouldn't have had the greatest moment I have ever seen live (Braun's homerun) but it shouldn't of had to come to that. Let's look at Corey's thoughts on that at-bat now.

"I wasn't really praying to get on or praying to get a hit. At that point, I was just praying that it would be in the strike zone and I could put it in play. That's how bad it was."

To me this statement clearly states that when Corey steps up to the plate, he doesn't know what he's doing. He's just swinging. This is echoed by Dale Sveum.

"He has to turn (hitting) into an art form instead of going up there and winging it," Sveum said. "He's what I call a poor-man's Vladimir Guerrero because when it leaves the pitcher's hand, he has a chance to hit it."

Vladimir Guerrero is a freak of nature. He is not a role model for hitters. He can do things that nobody can do. I've seen him hit balls that bounced in front of the plate and take them for a double. Corey Hart can't do that and can't be Vlad. He needs to figure something else out because the pitchers have figured him out. They know he's going to swing as indicated by this study at BCB.

For a guy who spent a lot of time hitting behind Fielder and Braun he was way too willing to swing especially at pitches outside the zone.  Swinging at 30% of fastballs outside the zone just isn't going to work.  He needs to stop swinging at those and maybe he will get a few more hittable ones.  I know Hart simply isn't going to ever walk enough but he has to stop swinging at balls out of the zone.

Blame it on stamina, personal problems or whatever you want, but Corey Hart is going to the plate with a bad approach. No approach and for all the talk about the loss of Sheets and Sabathia, a positive step forward by Hart could go a long way in making that up.

Brewers likely to forfeit Opening Day game

From the JS Blog:

Jeff SuppanThis is how Macha has them lined up  now, and he emphasized this does not mean they will line up this way for the season:

RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Yovani Gallardo
LHP Manny Parra
RHP Braden Looper
RHP Dave Bush

But, you know what? It wouldn't surprise me if they lined up this way at the start of the season

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me either which is disappointing (to say the least). I know that in the grand scheme of things the order of the starting 5 doesn't really matter and things even out over a 162 game season. I understand that, but why would you make your WORST pitcher line up with the opposing teams BEST pitcher for the first few series of the season?

Let's assume a few other teams #1 starter and look at Suppan's first three match ups.

4/7 @ Giants: Reigning Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum
4/12 CHC: Carlos Zambrano
4/18 @NYM: Johan Santana

Now let's look at how they all match up for 2009 using CHONE projections.

Team W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR SO
Suppan 7 11 5.31 28 28 161 195 103 95 20 86
Lincecum 10 7 3.21 25 25 154 130 59 55 11 175
Zambrano 11 9 4.14 30 30 185 181 92 85 19 144
Santana 15 8 3.33 31 31 208 185 83 77 22 200

So, like, don't do that. It's a really bad idea.

[stats: Fangraphs]
[image: St Louis Review]

What up Wisconsin?

Mike CameronWhat you might have missed while struggling to come to terms that Wolverine is really a song and dance man.

Yep.