24
Jul 09

Miller Park Drunk vs the Brewers Pythagorean record

I am going to attempt to be smart. Bear with me, unless you're attractive then bare with me.

The Brewers currently have a run differential of 442 scored to 448 given up. Their record is 48-47 while their pythagorean record is 47-48. Their second and third order records (go to the link for explanation) have them being even worse at 45-50 and 44-51. With the Brewers being 4th in the National League in runs scored it's not hard to tell that this is completely the fault of the pitching which is also 4th in the National League, 4th to last. Their current average score of a game is 4.7 to 4.7. Even if the Brewers can maintain their offense and drop the pitching down to 4.1 per game (which is what the division leading Cardinals are currently doing) they would still finish around 83 wins. Things do not look good for the Brewers and a .500 record could very likely be a reality. Here is a graph.

Games remaining 67

Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 314.9 274.7
Projected total 756.9 722.7
Projected win percentage 0.511
Projected Record 82.87 79.13

Now, that does not look good. However, this team won't look the same through the last 67 games as it did through the first 95. There will be changes. Already Felipe Lopez has stepped into the leadoff spot and he should be able to add a few runs to the team. If Bush comes back and rounds into form and Parra continues to be good Manny or if the team trades for a starter, they won't give up 4.7 runs the rest of the way. Ideally the rest of the way the team will average 5 runs per game and give up something like 3.5. Here's what that team would look like.

Games remaining 67
Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 335 234.5
Projected total 777 682.5
Projected win percentage 0.532
Projected Record 86.24 75.76

86 wins.Will that be enough? It could be. The NL Central isn't that strong (using this same formula the Cardinals finish 83.79-78-21) and at the very least that would put the Brewers in the discussion for the Wild Card. Add in some luck and who knows? The Brewers sure haven't had any this year.

I know the idea of scoring more and giving up over a full run less over the rest of the season can be a tough pill to swallow, but the past is the past. It doesn't matter how they got here, it matters what they do from this day forward. ZiPs Rest of the season projections are favorable for Parra, Bush, Villanueva and whoever isn't Mike Burns on the pitching side and JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Jason Kendall and even Ryan Braun on the hitting side. Say what you want about the Brewers this season, but as a whole they have underachieved a bit and should expect to be better from here on out. How much better? That is the question.

(All graphs use this pythagorean record formula.)


23
Jul 09

YES @bigleaguestew THE NL CENTRAL RACE IS GOOD FOR BASEBALL

nlwildcardBig League Stew currently has a poll up on their website asking if the current National League Central race is good for baseball. Thus far 345 people have answered with a whopping 89% saying that "Sure, why not?" it is good for baseball. To which I say, WELL DUH.

Look, let's come at this from the prespective that I am not a Brewers fan. Let's just say I am a mild mannered baseball fan from somewhere in Nebraska. I don't really have any allegiances because my parents hated me and raised me in Nebraska. I am too stupid to move anywhere cool because I went to school in Nebraska and only know that corn is real good for you. I do like to watch the baseball. The stars of the game are what draw me to it. Albert Pujols! Ryan Braun! Prince Fielder! Lance Berkman! Someone from the Cubs! You know what I would love to see these stars do? Make the playoffs! My enjoyment of baseball is built around my enjoyment of watching these superior athletes compete and what better way to see them than in the heat of a playoff race? Sure, they might only end up with a win total in the mid 80s but if we've learned anything over the past few years anything can happen in the playoffs. I don't care about the Cardinals or the Brewers, I care about Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. Let me see the stars shine, that's why the Wild Card works. That's why division realignment works.

Let's look at it from the prospective of Major League Baseball and TV Networks. Playoff race=ratings. Makes sense to me.

Okay, now I am a Brewers fan. OF COURSE THIS IS A GOOD THING ARE YOU FREAKIN CRAZY?! WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS TWO YEARS IN A ROW!!! DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY TIMES THAT HAS HAPPENED IN OUR HISTORY?! ZERO!!!!11 NEVER BEFORE AND YOU ARE ACTING LIKE ITS A BAD THIGN?! (OKAY ONCE BUT IT DOESNT REALLY COUNT BECAUSE IT WAS THAT STRIKE YEAR, BUT STILL!!!!!) 82!!!!! WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS TWO YEARS IN A ROW AND DEFEAT OUR HATED RIVALS DOING IT! WOOOHOOOOOO!!!!!1 HALLADAY! HALLADAY! HALLADAY!

To Brewers fans, playing as poorly as they have and still being in the race, is great for us. But you aren't a Brewers fan 'Duk, you're a Cubs fan and you are exactly right. This IS bad for you. The last two years have hurt and I feel bad for you, I really do. You don't want your team to make the playoffs again this year because this year's team is a lot worse than last year's team and you're not sure you can handle that kind of thing again. What could be worse than that is making a late run, only to fall a game behind. Or losing a tiebreaker. That would suck. As a Cubs fan you desperately want someone to run away with this division so you don't have to worry about what might happen if they actually do this thing. And I don't blame you one bit. As for the rest of us? A tight NL Central is great.


23
Jul 09

The Miller Park Drunk E-Mail Show starring Right Field Bleachers

pat sajak showWell after the success of the last Miller Park Drunk E-Mail Show starring Al's Ramblings we decided to do another one with Jared and Tyler from Right Field Bleachers. They have really been doing some good stuff lately with the Halladay trade and have really come into their own since they decided to just write about whatever they wanted instead of other people's opinions. This one didn't go off as smoothly as we'd have liked and it took us kind of a long time to complete, but we had a pretty good rapport and we churned out some good stuff. Some of this may seem dated now as we started this before the All-Star Break, but I stil think you will find it enjoyable.We start off talking about if that last stretch decides the season and the team was one or two games out and now they are still two games out. So I guess it's relevant (and I guess it didn't).

Miller Park Drunk: Okay guys, let's get this thing started. As I write this the Brewers are playing the Twins and they aren't looking very good. There are people out there who think the team is donezo and really you can't completely blame them. A big part of this team's success this season was dependent on Manny Parra and Dave Bush pitching competently on now we are without both of those guys. This is one of the toughest stretches of the season for the team right now. After our hated rival Twins leave town, the current Wild Card leader with one of the best pitching staffs in the majors comes to town, followed by the Mets (who thankfully are beat up), then we go to Chicago who are just starting to heat up, division leading Cardinals and end up with the best team in baseball the Dodgers. If the Brewers go around .500 over this stretch it's not the end of the season (afterall, we still get to play the Natinals, Pirates and Padres), but it would seem the team needs to do well. I think this team will be in the hunt for the playoffs up to the very end, but even I have my doubts (and I'm drunk half the time.) There are arguments to be made that the pitching staff is broken and can't be fixed or that the team played over it's head early (coughWeekscough) or any number of things. Where do you guys see the team going from here? Is this really the stretch that decides the season? Continue reading →


20
Jul 09

Felipe Lopez joins the Brewers

Doug Melvin Gentlemen, I'd like to introduce you to the newest member of the Milwaukee Brewers, Felipe Lopez!
felipelopez Hey guys, what's up? I'm happy to be here.
casey mcgehee HO-LA!
felipelopez Uhhh, hi. Casey McGehee, right? I think you're a great ball player.
casey mcgehee HABLA INGLESIAS?! Continue reading →

19
Jun 09

It’s Friday, let’s have fun with numbers

NumbersOkay, I think I am a bit calmed down now.

Just a few numbers to fill your head over the weekend because as everyone knows if there is one thing that goes good with heavy drinking, it's numbers.

96: Games left in the season. This seems like a lot, but trust me it's a big frown face for me. I haven't even went swimming yet!

5000+: Visitors so far in June. That's kind of a lot. Thanks a lot.

0: Of those 5000+ who would rather live in Detroit. Man, Detroit sucks. A couple of my buddies went out there for the series because they go to an out of town series every year and all I could say to them was "WHY?" I get the whole "never been there before and want to see their stadium thing", but Detroit is the pits.

35-31: Brewers Pythagoraen record. Same as the Cardinals. This means something, but I have no idea what.

14-15: Brewers record since Rickie Weeks last game. JUST SAYING.

73/274: Combined home runs and RBIs Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are on pace for. Thatsalottaruns. Fielder is on pace for most RBIs by an NL player since 2001. NICE. (Useless knowledge that I know: For those curious the HR record for teammates is 115 by Maris/Mantle in 1961.)

3: Times I've watched Hitch in the past week. No, I am not proud of this.

.250: Mike Cameron's current batting average. Hey, I told you this would happen.

250: The number of facebook fans we need to reach before giving away another two tickets. I think I set this number kind of low since we're already over 200, but whatever. I'll give it to next Friday and if we top 300, we'll have a secondary prize. If you're already a fan, you're already in. If you're not, click here to become a fan. Follow us on Twitter while you're at it.

That's about all I've got for you this week. We'll be working on getting some more cool stuff up here for next week. More comics (although that artist WAS a bit expensive), more Brewers Baby (if his mom says it's okay), LOLBREWERS and some other crazy stuff we haven't even come up with yet. You keep reading and telling your friends, we'll keep doing our thing (and if you're looking for tickets check out our sponsor Cheap Milwaukee Brewers Tickets). Now if you'll excuse me I haven't drank since Monday (!) and that's about four days too long.