29
Jul 09

The only living boy at Miller Park

CleanseGirlAfter yesterday's post and subsequent loss to the Nationals, I got to thinking about tonight's game. You see, I have tickets to tonight's game. The last game I went to was July 8th against the Cardinals. An excellent win featuring a Gamel homerun and a little Trevor Time. Good times were had by all. Since then I've been watching the games on television and it hasn't been a real pleasant experience to the point where I have seriously considered getting rid of tonight's tickets and going to karaoke or something. Right now I just feel as if going to Miller Park isn't the best way to spend my free time and money. I don't want to go to Miller Park and I don't want to watch the Brewers. Which is exactly why I have to go.

You see the more I thought about it the more I was reminded of this scene from the movie Garden State. (First commenter to make a "Do you know how I know you're gay" joke wins.)

In this scene the dude just lets go. It's raining, he's in some dirty quarry and he just says "you know what? F it. I'm having a good time." and that's exactly what I need to do tonight. I need to put whatever got me to this point behind me and just have a good time. It's like this, have you ever quit drinking for awhile? Whether it's because you had a real bad night or your girlfriend threatened you or you have court coming up or whatever, you decide to take it easy for awhile. But then that totally sucks and you are in a crabby mood so you eventually break down and start drinking again. Aren't you that much happier? Don't you feel like 100 times better after? That's what this game is like for me and considering the fact that I may have just described a symptom of alcoholism I feel pretty good about it.

Watching the Brewers suck on TV is terrible. Watching the Brewers suck live is slightly more palpable. Everything is always better at Miller Park. That's why tonight I am going to be living up to the title of this website. The Brewers sucking is what ails me and the only medicine is Miller Park. Like Prince made Applonia purify herself in the waters of Lake Minnetonka in Purple Rain, I have to purify myself in the beers of Miller Park. It's the only way we can get out of this in one piece.


28
Jul 09

Sitting Waiting Wishing: The Zen of Miller Park Drunk

zenchaThe Brewers should win today. We're playing the Pirates.

The Brewers should turn it around today.

The Brewers are going to make a move to get better.

The Brewers should win today. We're playing the Nationals.

The Brewers should be making a trade today.

And so on. It's starting to feel like all I do is wait on the Brewers. Since the All-Star break they are 4-7 despite playing only one team with a winning record. They are below .500 and four games behind the Cubs. The Cubs, people. I'm just about as easygoing when it comes to this team as a person can be. Suppan gives up 5 runs against the Pirates in 3.1 innings? That's okay, we'll score seven. I know it. Then we do and then we lose. Dave Bush isn't coming back? That's okay we'll go out and make a trade. Only we don't. We're 4-6 since the All-Star break and at .500? That's okay, the Nationals are coming to town. Then Josh Willingham hits two grand slams. And honestly, I got a bit shook for a moment. I actually said things like "if they don't win this game, it's over". I started to go through my tickets and tried to figure out if I could break even selling the rest of them. I was on the verge of giving up IN JULY which is so ridiculous and unlike me that I had to sit myself down and tell myself to relax. Then I gave myself two Ambien and called myself in the morning.

Look, I don't know what the team should do. Well, actually I do. They should put together a winning streak. Stay close. Win the next 5 games against the Nationals and Padres (or at least 4 of them). The August schedule is ridiculously easy. After the Dodgers, the best team they play is the Astros (despite the better record their run differential is terrible). Other than that it's the Pirates, Padres, Nationals and Reds. This is the time. Win these games. Then find out what you're made of in September when they play 13 games against the Cubs and Cardinals. That's when we'll know if this team can do it, but to get to that point they have to beat these easier teams. Stop making the Nationals and Pirates look like the Yankees and Red Sox. They have to have a good August. It's not over yet, despite what the record or the numbers might tell you. Looking at the schedule the Brewers should be favored in 27 of the next 30 games so anyone who says the Brewers should be sellers at the deadline clearly doesn't know how to read a schedule.

So I am not going to freak out. I am not going to say that the team needs to make a trade or get rid of this guy or that guy. I am not going to call for anyone's head. I am just going to continue to sit and wait and wish and things should even out so that they're ready to do something when September rolls around. That's when things matter and that's my advice to you dear fan. Relax. We still got a long way to go and the road to get there is pretty smooth all through August. Now if you'll excuse me I am going to drink a six pack and do some yoga.


24
Jul 09

Miller Park Drunk vs the Brewers Pythagorean record

I am going to attempt to be smart. Bear with me, unless you're attractive then bare with me.

The Brewers currently have a run differential of 442 scored to 448 given up. Their record is 48-47 while their pythagorean record is 47-48. Their second and third order records (go to the link for explanation) have them being even worse at 45-50 and 44-51. With the Brewers being 4th in the National League in runs scored it's not hard to tell that this is completely the fault of the pitching which is also 4th in the National League, 4th to last. Their current average score of a game is 4.7 to 4.7. Even if the Brewers can maintain their offense and drop the pitching down to 4.1 per game (which is what the division leading Cardinals are currently doing) they would still finish around 83 wins. Things do not look good for the Brewers and a .500 record could very likely be a reality. Here is a graph.

Games remaining 67

Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 314.9 274.7
Projected total 756.9 722.7
Projected win percentage 0.511
Projected Record 82.87 79.13

Now, that does not look good. However, this team won't look the same through the last 67 games as it did through the first 95. There will be changes. Already Felipe Lopez has stepped into the leadoff spot and he should be able to add a few runs to the team. If Bush comes back and rounds into form and Parra continues to be good Manny or if the team trades for a starter, they won't give up 4.7 runs the rest of the way. Ideally the rest of the way the team will average 5 runs per game and give up something like 3.5. Here's what that team would look like.

Games remaining 67
Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 335 234.5
Projected total 777 682.5
Projected win percentage 0.532
Projected Record 86.24 75.76

86 wins.Will that be enough? It could be. The NL Central isn't that strong (using this same formula the Cardinals finish 83.79-78-21) and at the very least that would put the Brewers in the discussion for the Wild Card. Add in some luck and who knows? The Brewers sure haven't had any this year.

I know the idea of scoring more and giving up over a full run less over the rest of the season can be a tough pill to swallow, but the past is the past. It doesn't matter how they got here, it matters what they do from this day forward. ZiPs Rest of the season projections are favorable for Parra, Bush, Villanueva and whoever isn't Mike Burns on the pitching side and JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Jason Kendall and even Ryan Braun on the hitting side. Say what you want about the Brewers this season, but as a whole they have underachieved a bit and should expect to be better from here on out. How much better? That is the question.

(All graphs use this pythagorean record formula.)


23
Jul 09

YES @bigleaguestew THE NL CENTRAL RACE IS GOOD FOR BASEBALL

nlwildcardBig League Stew currently has a poll up on their website asking if the current National League Central race is good for baseball. Thus far 345 people have answered with a whopping 89% saying that "Sure, why not?" it is good for baseball. To which I say, WELL DUH.

Look, let's come at this from the prespective that I am not a Brewers fan. Let's just say I am a mild mannered baseball fan from somewhere in Nebraska. I don't really have any allegiances because my parents hated me and raised me in Nebraska. I am too stupid to move anywhere cool because I went to school in Nebraska and only know that corn is real good for you. I do like to watch the baseball. The stars of the game are what draw me to it. Albert Pujols! Ryan Braun! Prince Fielder! Lance Berkman! Someone from the Cubs! You know what I would love to see these stars do? Make the playoffs! My enjoyment of baseball is built around my enjoyment of watching these superior athletes compete and what better way to see them than in the heat of a playoff race? Sure, they might only end up with a win total in the mid 80s but if we've learned anything over the past few years anything can happen in the playoffs. I don't care about the Cardinals or the Brewers, I care about Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. Let me see the stars shine, that's why the Wild Card works. That's why division realignment works.

Let's look at it from the prospective of Major League Baseball and TV Networks. Playoff race=ratings. Makes sense to me.

Okay, now I am a Brewers fan. OF COURSE THIS IS A GOOD THING ARE YOU FREAKIN CRAZY?! WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS TWO YEARS IN A ROW!!! DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY TIMES THAT HAS HAPPENED IN OUR HISTORY?! ZERO!!!!11 NEVER BEFORE AND YOU ARE ACTING LIKE ITS A BAD THIGN?! (OKAY ONCE BUT IT DOESNT REALLY COUNT BECAUSE IT WAS THAT STRIKE YEAR, BUT STILL!!!!!) 82!!!!! WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS TWO YEARS IN A ROW AND DEFEAT OUR HATED RIVALS DOING IT! WOOOHOOOOOO!!!!!1 HALLADAY! HALLADAY! HALLADAY!

To Brewers fans, playing as poorly as they have and still being in the race, is great for us. But you aren't a Brewers fan 'Duk, you're a Cubs fan and you are exactly right. This IS bad for you. The last two years have hurt and I feel bad for you, I really do. You don't want your team to make the playoffs again this year because this year's team is a lot worse than last year's team and you're not sure you can handle that kind of thing again. What could be worse than that is making a late run, only to fall a game behind. Or losing a tiebreaker. That would suck. As a Cubs fan you desperately want someone to run away with this division so you don't have to worry about what might happen if they actually do this thing. And I don't blame you one bit. As for the rest of us? A tight NL Central is great.


23
Jul 09

The Miller Park Drunk E-Mail Show starring Right Field Bleachers

pat sajak showWell after the success of the last Miller Park Drunk E-Mail Show starring Al's Ramblings we decided to do another one with Jared and Tyler from Right Field Bleachers. They have really been doing some good stuff lately with the Halladay trade and have really come into their own since they decided to just write about whatever they wanted instead of other people's opinions. This one didn't go off as smoothly as we'd have liked and it took us kind of a long time to complete, but we had a pretty good rapport and we churned out some good stuff. Some of this may seem dated now as we started this before the All-Star Break, but I stil think you will find it enjoyable.We start off talking about if that last stretch decides the season and the team was one or two games out and now they are still two games out. So I guess it's relevant (and I guess it didn't).

Miller Park Drunk: Okay guys, let's get this thing started. As I write this the Brewers are playing the Twins and they aren't looking very good. There are people out there who think the team is donezo and really you can't completely blame them. A big part of this team's success this season was dependent on Manny Parra and Dave Bush pitching competently on now we are without both of those guys. This is one of the toughest stretches of the season for the team right now. After our hated rival Twins leave town, the current Wild Card leader with one of the best pitching staffs in the majors comes to town, followed by the Mets (who thankfully are beat up), then we go to Chicago who are just starting to heat up, division leading Cardinals and end up with the best team in baseball the Dodgers. If the Brewers go around .500 over this stretch it's not the end of the season (afterall, we still get to play the Natinals, Pirates and Padres), but it would seem the team needs to do well. I think this team will be in the hunt for the playoffs up to the very end, but even I have my doubts (and I'm drunk half the time.) There are arguments to be made that the pitching staff is broken and can't be fixed or that the team played over it's head early (coughWeekscough) or any number of things. Where do you guys see the team going from here? Is this really the stretch that decides the season? Continue reading →

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