The trade deadline has come and gone and seemingly every team in the league was making deals, looking for that one piece to take their team from contender to champion.
The Indians got Ubaldo Jimenez! The Giants got Carlos Beltran! The Red Sox got Erik Bedard! The Rangers got Mike Adams and Koji Uehera! The Braves got Michael Bourn! The Phillies got Hunter Pence!
Some very good teams got better and in the process the road to the World Series got a whole lot tougher for the Brewers. Those weren't the only moves of the weekend either. The NL Central is so close right now and the two teams chasing the Brewers made moves to bolster their teams as well. Big moves that could shake the very foundation of the National League.
The Pirates got Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick!
The Cardinals got Edwin Jackson and Rafael Furcal!
I mean, wow. Am I right? Those guys weren't messing around! Those Pirates really added some big bats... from four years ago. Normally the Brewers would be shaking in their boots right now seeing big names like those going to their rivals at the same time Rickie Weeks went down, but not this year. They know that Doug Melvin has their back and that he would make some deadline deals of his own. No worries, they possibly thought, we're going to do some trades of our own to blow these guys out of the water because in Doug we trust. And you know what? They were right. Doug Melvin went out and got exactly what this team needed to get to the next level.
The Brewers got Felipe Lopez and Jerry Hairston Jr.!
We get a lot of hits from search engines. Almost 3000 last month alone. Sometimes it's people looking for our site who are too lazy to type the address in and other times it's people trying to find pictures of Randy Wolf's girlfriend. Which I love because this is what they find:
That picture gets me every time.
Anyways, some of the search terms are kind of insane and hilarious and we thought it'd be fun to share some of the better ones. Continue reading »
Admittedly I am the internet's biggest Rickie Weeks fan (check out this post that looked so awesome on Opening Day) so perhaps I am a bit biased, but I don't think Felipe Lopez will be back next season and I don't even think there is a chance. Why do I think this? It's simple. This quote from Doug Melvin:
"We view Rickie as our second baseman at this point."
Or in other words, Felipe Lopez won't be back.
Now, make no mistake about it the Brewers WILL offer him arbitration. I think that could be part of the reason they traded for him in the first place. (Last season when the Brewers traded for CC Sabathia they had a plan. Make the playoffs and then replace the farm system they lost through picks from Sabathia and Sheets signing elsewhere. Only one of those two things happened and the system wasn't as deep as it might have been therefore they weren't as free to make a move this season. That's just a theory of mine though.) The fact is he's a Boras client coming off a great season and Boras thinks he can get more than a one year deal in the open market, but for a second let's just say he accepts arbitration. Could he be back? Continue reading »
I am going to attempt to be smart. Bear with me, unless you're attractive then bare with me.
The Brewers currently have a run differential of 442 scored to 448 given up. Their record is 48-47 while their pythagorean record is 47-48. Their second and third order records (go to the link for explanation) have them being even worse at 45-50 and 44-51. With the Brewers being 4th in the National League in runs scored it's not hard to tell that this is completely the fault of the pitching which is also 4th in the National League, 4th to last. Their current average score of a game is 4.7 to 4.7. Even if the Brewers can maintain their offense and drop the pitching down to 4.1 per game (which is what the division leading Cardinals are currently doing) they would still finish around 83 wins. Things do not look good for the Brewers and a .500 record could very likely be a reality. Here is a graph.
Projected win percentage
Now, that does not look good. However, this team won't look the same through the last 67 games as it did through the first 95. There will be changes. Already Felipe Lopez has stepped into the leadoff spot and he should be able to add a few runs to the team. If Bush comes back and rounds into form and Parra continues to be good Manny or if the team trades for a starter, they won't give up 4.7 runs the rest of the way. Ideally the rest of the way the team will average 5 runs per game and give up something like 3.5. Here's what that team would look like.
Projected win percentage
86 wins.Will that be enough? It could be. The NL Central isn't that strong (using this same formula the Cardinals finish 83.79-78-21) and at the very least that would put the Brewers in the discussion for the Wild Card. Add in some luck and who knows? The Brewers sure haven't had any this year.
I know the idea of scoring more and giving up over a full run less over the rest of the season can be a tough pill to swallow, but the past is the past. It doesn't matter how they got here, it matters what they do from this day forward. ZiPs Rest of the season projections are favorable for Parra, Bush, Villanueva and whoever isn't Mike Burns on the pitching side and JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Jason Kendall and even Ryan Braun on the hitting side. Say what you want about the Brewers this season, but as a whole they have underachieved a bit and should expect to be better from here on out. How much better? That is the question.