19
Aug 09

This isn’t the first time the Brewers have let you down

While I am still not 100% committed to throwing in the towel on the 2009 Brewers season the fact remains that in order for the Brewers to make the playoffs this season will require a minor miracle. Not quite a water into wine type miracle, but something along the lines of the Brewers bullpen holding a lead, Jason Kendall getting an extra base hit or an awful writer not losing his job when the newspaper industry is going broke. The mere existence of Anthony Witrado gives our season hope.

Whatever happens this season know that this isn't the first time the Brewers have let fans down after a successful season. In 1982 they made the World Series and on August 25th 1983 they were in first place, but by the end of the season they were 11 games back and in a pre-Wild Card world out of the playoffs (not that they would have made it anyways). So if you are feeling let down by the Brewers now, just imagine what it was like in 1983. You know, besides totally awesome.

Or we could just do the imagining for you. That's right, it's Miller Park Drunk: 1983 Edition.

Continue reading →


06
Aug 09

Every team needs a punching bag, Jason Kendall is ours

jasonkendallI've been watching baseball my entire life and if there is one thing I've learned it's that you have to hate at least one person on your favorite team at all times. It's impossible to love 25 guys at the same time. You have to dislike a few. All season long Jason Kendall and Jeff Suppan have been neck and neck for the title of punching bag, but with Suppan's injury and Kendall's recent slump it seems that Kendall has taken the crown once and for all. And I couldn't be happier.

With Suppan it's always more about expectations and money than it is about performance. He is not good, I am not saying that he is. It's just that he is a 4th starter and he is expected to be a fourth starter, he just happens to be paid exorbirantly well for a fourth starter. It's not his fault that he took the money, who wouldn't? He is what he is.

With Kendall it's different. He's a catcher and catcher's aren't supposed to hit, but he is so bad at hitting that it's become a joke. The story goes that he overcomes his hitting by his value in handling the pitchers. The pitchers like throwing to him. Let's just go ahead and debunk that REAL QUICK. Continue reading →


24
Jul 09

Miller Park Drunk vs the Brewers Pythagorean record

I am going to attempt to be smart. Bear with me, unless you're attractive then bare with me.

The Brewers currently have a run differential of 442 scored to 448 given up. Their record is 48-47 while their pythagorean record is 47-48. Their second and third order records (go to the link for explanation) have them being even worse at 45-50 and 44-51. With the Brewers being 4th in the National League in runs scored it's not hard to tell that this is completely the fault of the pitching which is also 4th in the National League, 4th to last. Their current average score of a game is 4.7 to 4.7. Even if the Brewers can maintain their offense and drop the pitching down to 4.1 per game (which is what the division leading Cardinals are currently doing) they would still finish around 83 wins. Things do not look good for the Brewers and a .500 record could very likely be a reality. Here is a graph.

Games remaining 67

Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 314.9 274.7
Projected total 756.9 722.7
Projected win percentage 0.511
Projected Record 82.87 79.13

Now, that does not look good. However, this team won't look the same through the last 67 games as it did through the first 95. There will be changes. Already Felipe Lopez has stepped into the leadoff spot and he should be able to add a few runs to the team. If Bush comes back and rounds into form and Parra continues to be good Manny or if the team trades for a starter, they won't give up 4.7 runs the rest of the way. Ideally the rest of the way the team will average 5 runs per game and give up something like 3.5. Here's what that team would look like.

Games remaining 67
Scored Allowed
Current Runs 442 448
Projected Runs 335 234.5
Projected total 777 682.5
Projected win percentage 0.532
Projected Record 86.24 75.76

86 wins.Will that be enough? It could be. The NL Central isn't that strong (using this same formula the Cardinals finish 83.79-78-21) and at the very least that would put the Brewers in the discussion for the Wild Card. Add in some luck and who knows? The Brewers sure haven't had any this year.

I know the idea of scoring more and giving up over a full run less over the rest of the season can be a tough pill to swallow, but the past is the past. It doesn't matter how they got here, it matters what they do from this day forward. ZiPs Rest of the season projections are favorable for Parra, Bush, Villanueva and whoever isn't Mike Burns on the pitching side and JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Jason Kendall and even Ryan Braun on the hitting side. Say what you want about the Brewers this season, but as a whole they have underachieved a bit and should expect to be better from here on out. How much better? That is the question.

(All graphs use this pythagorean record formula.)


24
Jul 09

Miller Park Drunk E-Mail Show with Right Field Bleachers, Part 2

beermilwaukeeshirtPart one was a bit more by the book and with part two we had a bit more fun. If you aren't already doing so check out Right Field Bleachers, it's a lot like this site only with more writers, more photshopping and less pretend conversations. Good stuff.

MPD: Congratulations on making me gag myself. Once with the clam chowder analogy and a second time at the thought of Vicente Padilla in a Brewers uniform (hang on.... yep, this one just made me gag a third time). I think we're all at the point now where we are getting antsy for the Brewers to do something. Earlier in the season Melvin was quote as saying he wasn't sure if he needed a bat or a pitcher and I think it has become painfully clear to anyone with even the slightest of baseball knowledge (Tom Haudricourt comes to mind) what the team needs. We're well past the point of wondering if this team will make a move and now we are forced to sit and wait for it to happen. We've actually been (seemingly) waiting so long that it's gotten to the point where people are wondering if they might actually need two starting pitchers. I'm all about waiting for the right deal/player/trade, but come on already. People are dying out there!

You mentioned that you wouldn't mind seeing Corey Hart leaving in a trade and my kneejerk reaction is to say "well, who would replace him?" (Catalanatto is probably a better hitter, but a HUGE defensive dropoff. Gerut is the opposite.) At the same time the two easiest positions to fill on the field are first base and corner outfield. There are lots of bats out there that could step in and do close to what he's doing so I could almost see it. Almost. I'm just not convinced the team is ready to give up on him yet (which is weird considering all the grief he gave them in arbitration.) Does his popularity have anything to do with it? I don't know, but the more I think about Corey Hart, the more he reminds me of Jeff Francouer of the Braves. No great batting eye to speak of. Power to spare. Perpetually underachieving. Short flashes of brilliance. Ends up league average or worse. Hart is older, but he's like Francouer in that he was a lot better two years ago. Hart's improved his walk rate quite a bit this year (which could easily come back to Earth), but so did his strikeout rate went up too and it's come at the cost of some power (which could easily not come back to Earth). I am not sure if he's ever going to be much better than he was in 2007 and considering his first half of 2008 was likely a serious outlier, maybe dangling him out there is the right move. If the team can get some value for him now, why not? Sure, a few thousand female fans would be upset but they had to have figured out he wasn't really attractive at some point right? I don't know if Corey Hart gets you Ian Snell of the Pirates or Erik Bedard of the Mariners. I really just don't know, but I'd like to see Doug try and figure that out. I suspect even the Moustache hates hearing that at-bat music three times a game.

Forget Hart for a second though, let's talk about another can't miss Brewer: Mat Gamel. He only spells his name with one T so you know he's bad ass. I understand (and love) that Casey McGehee has been playing out of his mind for the past month, but can this dude get more than one start in a week? He's shown flashes and in my arm-chair-scout-who-has-no-idea-what-he's-talking-about opinion his at-bats have improved since he first came up quite a bit. He deserves an honest shot out there before they switch McGehee into virtually full time 3B mode. Give him two weeks of starts, then we'll talk. It's all I ask really because I think Gamel could be one of the next great Brewers and he should be out there playing. Or if the team sends him down, it should be to practice right field in preparation for him finishing the season there. Where do you stand on the send him down/keep him up argument and where do you see him going in the future as a Brewer? Continue reading →


21
Jul 09

Who is Dave Kerwin? Miller Park Drunk investigates

kendallCurious story out of Pittsburgh yesterday. When Jason Kendall was interviewed post game he called Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan by a different name.

"It was fine until Dave Kerwin," Kendall said, referring to Kerrigan. Kendall continued to call Kerrigan by that incorrect name -- seemingly on purpose -- even after being promptly corrected.

"I can take a lot, but I'm not going to get yelled at," he continued. "Dave Kerwin started yelling at me...."

When asked what he thought made Kerrigan so mad, Kendall responded: "I don't know. Dave Kerwin? I have no idea."

Now, it's clear to me that he is talking about Joe Kerrigan but in an attempt to undermine him is calling him by a different name. People do this all the time. Sometimes when I am mad at my friend Emily I call her "Smemily". If I am upset with my friend Jeff I call him "Jeffrey". Whenever my ex makes me mad I call her something that rhymes with "pilthy chucking door". This makes sense. What doesn't make sense is the name Jason Kendall chose. Continue reading →

  • BrewBay

    PAUL MOLITOR - 1983 O-PEE-CHEE #371 Vintage Baseball Card Milwaukee Brewers
    PAUL MOLITOR - 1983 O-PEE-CHEE #371 Vintage Baseball Card Milwaukee Brewers
    US $4.00
  • Brewers Tickets

  • E-Mail Miller Park Drunk